by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | January 26, 2016 5:45 pm
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Source URL: https://sgumdev.stockgumshoe.com/2016/01/irregulars-annual-review/
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I have written osure tech and the cdc to set up testing centers at points of entry to tthe USA to prevent the spread of the hiv, hvc, hvb pandemics that are currently spread by people coming in to the USA from outside. This company is also developing an Ebola test. I told them we need to set up this shield to protect Americans unexposed and exposed and also to vaccinate the USA public against theses pandemics.
Sent from my HTC One max on the Verizon Wireless 4G LTE network
I am confused. What company are you talking about? None of the Irregulars Annual Reviews seem to be involved in this process.
I think I found out that you the “r” off the osure tech, I think you meant to say QraSure Tech.
Hi Travis, GMLP was recently profiled in OIl and Gas investments – can you care to comment on it? Looks interesting.
As you are REIT aficionado, do like any of the beat up hotel REITs, my favorite is APLE which has yet to established solid credibility, damaged goods as it was part of a non-traded REIT family, not many happy campers that participated in that dicey sub-asset class (gory details upon request). Extensive details on why I like it so much upon request, HPT is interesting with the hard to replicate “truck stop” portfolio in the mix. Missed CLDT when it got very cheap for a few days. Also are you familiar with NRE an absolute A European “Gateway City” office portfolio that is managed for $US returns, the largest piece was funded buy a very cheap Euro denominated mortgage, to a bit of a structural hedge right there, multinational tenants (Many U.S.) By rent ranks it’s UK, Germany, France, with Madrid Brussels in the mix. ARE has come back to earth and not even a close second in this sort of “Life Sciences” REIT, while fairly large is still in global growth mode. Finally I believe that in my data center basket it is good to have some CONE as it is somewhat differentiated and recent acquisition is nicely complementary. Fears of its exposure to the energy industry are hugely overblown. The few big ones that were thinking about building some of there own have shelved for a long time (Discretionary Cap Ex is not popular in this sector, and won’t be for a while).
I haven’t looked at many of those in detail, but thanks so much for the suggestions.
Travis, thanks for the summary. You must
be a little more optimistic with $FB up $11.40
after hours on VG earnings.
Would rather see it go down a bit, since I’ve no intention of selling anytime soon… But their growth from nothing to dominant mobile ad platform in just a couple years has been nothing short of remarkable. One BILLION daily users. Damn.
Any thoughts on Pershing Square Holdings (PSHZF)?
Obviously a train wreck for the year, thanks largely but not exclusively to Valeant and their hubris about the value of “platform” companies who can be perpetual acquisition machines. I still have funds invested with them, am taking the long view still.
Do u hav an opinion on CK Hutchinson (CKHUY) . Maybe u r bearish on all Chinese
stocks. As u may know Hutchinson Whampoa was re-organized in the summer of
2015 to add all Li Ka-shing’s holdings under one holding company for the benefit of
his son to succeed him. CKHUY was recently trading at $US 12 per share at TD
Ameritrade. No foreign security fee is charged for this ADR (1:1) which trades over-the-
counter in the US.
Thanks Travis ————— Peter J Schelker, Irregulars member
Haven’t looked at that in a long time, is it still mostly Hong Kong real estate? That’s certainly a risky asset class these days, though anything could be worth buying at the right price.
Thanks Travis that’s about what I was looking for.
GRC appears to be connected to an alleged fraudster with Abaca Solutions, in which GRC invested $1MM in 2014, with another $1MM possibly involved. A story broke this past weekend in Canmore, AB where Abaca is located (?). I sold my position in GRC as a result since they are, IMO and if allegations are correct, an of course if I’m reading this all correctly, not engaging in proper due diligence before committing assets.
I think that story mostly ended in late 2014 as far as Grenville is concerned — they wrote down the investment in November 2014 and noted that the company had ceased operations only a month or so after they had completed the investment, presumably because of the fraud that was alleged there (the case is starting now, which is why it’s generating news). They recorded an impairment on their full million-dollar investment in APO Group back then, but did note a recovery of about 40% of that on the books a couple quarters ago. I don’t think they’ve commented specifically on what the mistake was with APO Group, whether it was something they should have caught in their screening process or was some other sort of anomaly, it’s obviously an embarrassment to the company that they gave someone a million dollars and he was out of business within weeks. The level of concern that gives you is up to you — it’s not a deal breaker for me, because we already knew this investment was written down within weeks (we just didn’t know why, specifically) and the recovery of $400,000 means that Grenville management, at least, hopefully learned a good $600,000 lesson. I don’t know if their model is more at risk from fraudulent customers/partners than other financing models, but they do work with smaller companies so there is certainly plenty of risk to go around.
They are likely to have defaults on a somewhat regular basis, the model is set up to anticipate occasional defaults and occasional buyouts — so far they’ve had more of the latter than the former, but whether that continues in a weaker economic cycle is my primary “risk” concern with the company. They’re still small, so they’d take a substantial hit if more than a couple deals a year go south.
Travis, where does VGHCX stand? Are you buying it on this dip?
I don’t trade in and out of that mutual fund, that’s a sector allocation I consider to be important — I buy a little bit on a regular basis but don’t try to time it.
I can’t remember what you ended up doing with $LGND, but noticed it is now up to around 100 again. Remember a few yrs ago when that short-selling jerk analyst said the company was worth “zero” and everyone dumped, the stock plummeted? I should have bought then. what do you think about it now? I know it’s pretty richly valued, but they keep signing with companies and getting more and more royalty agreements.
I pared back my holdings at one point, but since then I’ve held firm and consider it a “hold” now, and now that I’ve “right sized” my investment I’m willing to give it a lot of latitude. Not a lot of near-term catalysts are obvious, and it is expensive, but I did write a couple paragraphs about it above and I like their recent acquisition.
Sorry, Travis. I read your article, but I must have just had a stroke and missed your 2 paragraphs on $LGND. Thanks for the info.
FAIR WARNING: My track record isn’t very good, but I sure like $ICON with Cuneo as CEO and all the Peanuts money coming in. This could double or better in a couple months. There’s a lot of negatives already priced into the stock, and it has a large short interest. Any good news and watch out.
Travis: not sure if you read or respond to old posts but I am just getting caught up on my Irregulars reading and wanted to understand how these JPM warrants work. If I buy 100 JPM-WT at say $17 (my cost $1,700) with a strike price of $42 and come October 28, 2018, the price of JPM stock is just $50, does this mean one loses 100% of the amount invested, in this case $1,700?
Since you have the right to buy at $42 and the current price is $50 at that time, the warrant near expiration should be worth $8 a share, so in that scenario you would be down roughly 50 recent.
You do have to sell or exercise warrants, they can expire worthless if you don’t take some action before expiration.
Thank you for your very prompt response. Much appreciated.
Today is World Book Day… let us know what book you’re currently reading… #LoveReading #WorldBookDay: https://twitter.com/NationalDays/status/705353448099864576/photo/1
I have just joined your community. I am kind of thinking to put some money on TRXC. What is your take on this stock ? Would appreciate your thought on this. Thanks
I’ve written about it a few times and have a small speculation on the shares around the expected FDA approval date that hasn’t paid off. Longer term, Dr. KSS has been positive on the stock. I expect, if it is successful in the end, that there will probably lots of fits and starts during the path to commercialization, but that’s just a guess.
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Then join the BIO current thread here.
Long TRXC and Dr.KSS
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