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written by reader Fairfax/Watsa changing Strategy to Less Bearish?

By sandy_shore, November 30, 2016



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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

Yes, they adjusted very quickly after the election — which surprised me a little, and has made some investors worry that Watsa is being a bit capricious after being bearish for a long time. I’m curious to see what happens next, and what they’ve done (if anything) with their deflation bets — it’s a well-run insurance company, but they’ve definitely suffered because of Watsa’s bearish positioning recently, which is one of the risks of an investment-focused insurance company like this (or like Third Point Re or Greenlight Re or, to a lesser extent, Markel). I like the company without the bearish hedge, and they’ve generally done very well over the long term, but it certainly doesn’t play as strategic a role in my portfolio without the bearish hedge so I’ll be thinking about that in the months to come.

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