GOLD AND SILVER AND HARD ASSETS…SUMMER 2017Pretium Resources $PVG announced on July 3 that commercial production has been achieved at Brucejack.
That achievement makes a nice breakpoint for a new thread continuation on hard assets, which I introduce herewith.
This thread is a continuation of threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. It incorporates the changes that have occurred in my outlook
since January. Most of the companies I am long have been subject to lengthy due diligence and discussion, which you can find on prior threads.
PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good hard asset and commodity ideas. The thread is aimed at those who share the same general outlook. I favor royalty companies, developers, small to mid-cap miners, and explorers. I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes. I am strongly influenced by the leadership and management of the companies under discussion.
I am a believer in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule. And remember that as investments, in general, MINERS SUCK. We are looking for those that suck the least and have the most upside, or speculations we believe have the best chances of appreciating. My favorite jurisdictions are Canada and Australia, but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods like Turkey, DRC and Mongolia and speculate there if I think the story is compelling. I am also a big fan of Robert Friedland and I believe there is a technological materials and commodity revolution taking place, which subject is also best suited to the other thread: Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings.
My outlook for the sectors (excluding scandium and the rare earth battery metal complex) is as follows:
GOLD AND SILVER INVESTMENTS…Precious metals remain a focus on this thread. I believe that gold and silver prices have been and continue to be a target of manipulation and price suppression by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks. I take these suppressive actions to be a reality and part of the landscape. It is pointless to cry about it, but instructive to observe what is happening.
I believe these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime and keep prices artificially low for long periods. But not forever.
Meanwhile I will maintain my positions in the sector and lookfor the very best speculations and investments in it.
So I am still bullish and gold and silver investments for the long-term, although the proportion of them in my investments in my stock portfolio is being reduced somewhat.
That proportion is still probably much higher than that of most readers.
My gold/silver longs are:
Miners, even though miners suck: $PVG Pretium Resources, $MAG Mag Silver
Royalty/streamers: $WPM Wheaton Precious Metals, $SAND Sandstorm Gold. Was long $FNV but did not like their recent shift to gain exposure to oil and gas, so I am out.
Developers: $SA Seabridge, $BCEKF Bear Creek, $KNTNF K92 Mining
Exploration speculations: $CNRIF Condor, $ERDCF Erdene Resource Development, $KVLQF Kivalliq Energy, $CLASF Colorado Resources
Physical and redeemables: I hold physical in non-numismatic gold and silver, and I am long $PSLV.
COPPER, ZINC, NICKEL…I am bullish and welcome discussion of tickers in these commodities. My only long at the moment is Ivanhoe Mines, $IVPAF.
$IVPAF has some political and jurisdiction risk in DRC, and minor exposure in South Africa; so I think introduction of other ideas is of benefit.
SCANDIUM, COBALT, and WATER PURIFICATION: Please revert to my thread devoted to this. Discussion of battery technology and mining technology is best posted on that thread.
My conviction pick/stock speculation here is $CTEQF, CleanTeQ Holdings, which has its own thread.
LITHIUM: I am long Galaxy Resources but I am not terribly excited by the lithium space as a commodity play;
discussion of lithium and batteries should be on the other thread Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings.
PLATINUM GROUP METALS (PGM) Fair game for thread discussion.
My only long is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF, which is mainly a copper/zinc stock.
DIAMONDS I have very small positions in Lucara and Lupara, they are diamond mining speculations.
URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long $CCJ Cameco and UEC as a high-leverage speculation.
POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested because it is at the intersection of food and mining, but no position at present. Ideas welcome.
AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. No positions as of this writing, but I have been watching WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield), LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland), INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).
OIL AND GAS… Currently I have no positions in oil and gas as I see uncertainty in long-term demand, no real problems on the supply side, and more competition from other energy sources, primarily from the battery/electric sector. But I would welcome good ideas accompanied by strong reasons and decent due diligence and research. This field is so big and complex we could get completely lost just tossing names around. If someone has conviction and knowledge about a company, discussion is welcome.
SOLAR, WIND, COAL, IRON ORE, ALUMINUM, STEEL…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something. I am bullish on aluminum vis-a-vis steel but prefer more leveraged, long-term scandium alloy to aluminum.
****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context.
I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. I change my mind on investment choices and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.
.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. Caveat emptor. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine.
Political developments and opinions should be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.
I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.
**Please note: this post has been closed to further comments. The discussion has moved over to the most recent Gold, Silver and Hard Assets post, which will always be the topmost one on Hendrixnuzzles’s Stock Gumshoe page.**
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
Notice: Undefined variable: karmaOutput in /home/sgumdev/public_html/wp-content/themes/sgum_2016/functions.php on line 3288
Notice: Undefined variable: karmaOutput in /home/sgumdev/public_html/wp-content/themes/sgum_2016/functions.php on line 3288
$KDKGD – Klondike Gold Corp. Joins The Gold Rush
by Matt Bohlsen@sa
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4108664-klondike-gold-corp-joins-gold-rush?uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
I think I may have posted Klondike Gold already but this is a good write up also as before this a risky speculation. Drilling is being done and should they find the mother lode 1906 gold rush it could be yuge.
$KDKGF np
Straw in the wind ?…I noticed this headline on the Kitco website. It is only anecdotal, but I do not recall “deflate” ever being in a current news headline to describe a drop in the stock market.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14315605/1/wall-street-deflates-in-pullback-after-fed-excitement.html
Drops…loses…declines…sheds…ends off…down…but never have I seen
“Dow Jones averages deflate”. Have you ?
…crashes…plummets…gives back…nosedives…falls…finishes lower…tumbles…stumbles..but “deflates” has not been in the journalistic headline vocabulary. I guess it is a journalistic no-no.
Then they would have to say the averages are “inflating” when they go up !
“The Dow Jones averages inflated themselves to record highs today.”
I don’t think you will ever see it. Even if it is true !
What is your rational that gold and silver prices are “gold and silver prices have been and continue to be a target of manipulation and price suppression by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks”. What technical indicators are you using in deciding to buy or sell a position?
Personally, I don’t care if the government or other powerful groups are moving the price of gold or silver. I care about any observable cyclic nature of the price which can be detected by technical indicators to increase my probability of a successful directional trade. But I trade various gold and silver leveraged ETFs instead of the futures just because I’m more familiar with the ETFs than I am with futures and future options.
Finally, gold and silver trading tend to be moon shot trades and are only a small part of portfolio heavily stacked with EPS growth stocks during this EPS-favorable boom. But when observable extremes in gold/silver occur, they clearly provide opportunistic trades, but only to get in and then definitely get out when extreme is at the other end.
What indicators are you using?
short term…the thread is not for short-term trading. That is not our orientation.
If you have some good technical tools to help with entries on stocks of interest, we’d like to hear about that.
For example, a lot of us are interested in Ivanhoe Mines and Sandstorm Gold. Maybe you could give us your technical perspective on good entry points for these and other stock of inyterest. That would be great.
If you have a constructive idea for investments, we’d love to hear about them.
**
As for “evidence of price manipulation and suppresion”, read the papers, search the web. DB, JPM, and others including the LME have all been implicated. Even been fined in court. And do you not think the Chinese government has an influence ?
There is plenty of evidence if you look around. But I have no interest in debating it, it is not productive. I listed it as a bias anyway.
Kind regards
short term trader…Let me ask you a question.
If you have a good and true answer it would be helpful to many readers.
What indicators do you use, and what do you foresee about the price movement
of gold, silver, copper, and nickel, in what time frame ?
And…do you own any physical gold or silver ?
***
It was a little rude of me not to answer your question directly. I apologize.
But a few things in your post indicated to me that you are really not familiar with the rationale of this thread, nor have you read and understood much of what we
are trying to do.
1. But to answer you, the basis for my belief in price manipulation and suppression in gold and silver is based on both macro observations and the tendencies of governments with respect to their currencies and policies, which are IMO self-evident; and specific facts that have surfaced from time to time, like criminal prosecutions, convictions, confessions, plea deals, and fines. The macro you can see for yourself; the details on individual banks and institutions price fixing, spoofing, and conspiring, you can find on the web.
We also see from time to time government action, secretive and in policy, that lead to the same conclusion. Currency deflation, attempts to digitize wealth and suppress gold as money, while at the same time accumulating in secret…it is obvious.
It is clear to me just from the surface of things that gold and silver are not the “free markets” we read about in textbooks. When Goldman Sachs or JPM can borrow money for free in unlimited amounts from the Fed and speculate with it, it is not a free market.
And since no one is taking physical delivery of the commodities in anything close to the volume of instruments being traded, it is also clear that most of the activity is speculation., and/or there is a plan and a policy to manipulate prices to somebody’s advantage . This observation is in addition to the documented criminal and/or secretive activity at various institutions such as Deutsche Bank, JPM, the LME, etc.
**
“Personally, I don’t care if the government or some other group is moving the price”…well, that’s fine. Maybe you are doing well now, and don’t care. But if you are on the wrong side of a big trade, you will care.
Maybe you are delta neutral. Great. But in that case, you are not investing in hard assets, you are doing something else. As far as directional trading, we are not doing that, although we would like to be on the right side of trends major trends.
**
I have stated in the opening essay that I dislike ETFs. I do not trust them as hard assets. They are a leveraged concoction of the financial interests. They are for lazy people who do not want to do research. Not that you or the next person cannot make money trading them; but they are not hard assets. They are trading vehicles. You are trading a leveraged agglomeration of other people’s opinions, as reflected in the market value of the components. I wish you no harm, maybe you are more successful trading than I am at investing. That wouldn’t be too difficult.
But whatever technicals you are using, I guarantee there are lots of guys out there with more sophisticated algorhythms, faster computers, better executions, and lower commissions than you have.
**
I am not especially good at selecting entries. I would love to improve that aspect of my investing. Sincerely, maybe you could help out on that. But to answer your question, I look at basic technicals, nothing fancy. Volume, price, short interest, MAs at different intervals, MACD, divergence. I like candlesticks and understand most important chart signals. But most of the options on my broker research module go unused.
Since my interest is on fundamentals or anticipated discovery or news, or macro trends, I tend to discount short-term technicals because I have a longer time frame and believe the underlying upside is dramatic and unpredictable with respect to timing. Often I want to buy such a stock when it looks absolutely dead technically. Flat EMAs, low volume, no momentum, no nothing. Especially along low horizontal bases bottom bases. Completely wrung out with nary a technical to recommend it. I do not want directional movement. I want a big upside asset at a low price near a bottom. But V bottoms give me heartburn create too much emotion.
When the stock starts to move, it is more difficult to know if your entry is good.
**
I recently bought a very thinly stock that had not traded in two days. It has no earnings, low volume, low liquidy, nano market cap. I am not a big investor,
but my purchase was the 90% of the volume of the stock on that day.
Which technical indicators would you suggest I look at ?
**
You seemed to care about EPS. You referred to it as a criterion. My understanding is that EPS is a fundamental measure, not a technical one. Please correct me if I am wrong about this. But to address EPS….many of the companies we discuss have no EPS at all. They are explorers and developers. They have expenses and no income, no earnings. Even the established companies have pitiful earnings, because we have been in a multi-year bear market in metals.
Why look at EPS on a mining speculation with a deposit but no income ? That would be useless, unless it is to determine if the company is sustainable compared to their assets and prospects. And the technicals do not tell me anything about potential discoveries on their claims., unless it is being leaked out before news.
Looking forward to your answer. We could use some help entering our favorites.
Short term
Ted Butler has been writing and providing evidence about the silver market manipulation for decades.
New thread:
Gold, Silver, Copper, and Hard Assets…Fall 2017
https://www.sgumdev.stockgumshoe.com/2017/09/microblog-gold-silver-copper-and-hard-assetsfall-2017/comment-page-1/#comment-4951500
Will leave this thread open for a few days, but please migrate to the new one.