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written by reader Shopify: Travis , what are your thoughts on this claim by Citron.?

By backoffice, October 10, 2017

I’m curious to know what your take on this is. Thanks

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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
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I posted some initial thoughts in the Friday File last week.

I’m letting a broad stop loss make my decision on this one (roughly 40%, which would be around $73). I’m not worried about the “overvaluation” part of Left’s analysis, that’s obviously true and it’s always true of rapid-growth companies with large addressable markets — sentiment shifts are huge for overvalued companies, so investor sentiment drives everything for SHOP now and they’re clearly subject to big swings if they ever disappoint.

I have some concerns about the more serious allegations, the alleged FTC violations and such, though Left’s case seems to be mostly overhyped on that front. I would have bought more on the drop if it weren’t for the possibility, though I consider it a small one, that there’s actually something nefarious happening in Shopify’s affiliate programs.

The shares seem to have settled now that they washed out their 20% and 25% stop loss levels in the $90s, so we’ll see what happens going into the quarter. Shopify’s response has been very muted so far, with little specifics other than “we stand by our business model”, so I’ll be curious to see what they say in the conference call in a few weeks.

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