by DrKSSMDPhD | October 5, 2017 6:00 am
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Source URL: https://sgumdev.stockgumshoe.com/2017/10/microcap-conference-essex-house-new-york-city-october-5-2017/
We know who da mann, but this one’s for Cleveland.
I am wondering if anyone has insights on the decline of ARCA (ABIO) from $2.5 to $1 in the August timeframe. Was this entirely about the pending study review? I notice on the cash flow that they issued a lot of stock just prior to the decline, so I guess you could build a case for this being partly about dilution as well.
It looks like this company is only carrying about a quarter’s burn rate of cash on the balance sheet. So if they were to ever have a bad study result, the trip to bankruptcy would be quite rapid. This might also account for the extremely low valuation.
Dr KSS, how are you feeling about the science on ABIO after the study review?
Pone67, come over to the new thread. Tear Sheet: CohBar, Inc. As far as ABIO. I have 2 fairly big positions, one at 2.20 and one at 1.90. The August DMSC was indeed the reason for the drop. The results of that review had 3 potential outcomes.
1. Continue as planned (which is what they recommended)
2. Stop study b/c drug not working
3. Drug working so well, stop Phase 2, and use the SAME patients to start a Phase 3
Of course, the masses were hoping for outcome #3. When that didn’t happen SP dropped. It has been rebounding of late with a low of around 1.05, to somewhere around 1.60 yesterday.
We had a lot of great commentary from Dr KSS about it in August a few threads back. I suggest you search for those comments.
Basically, it still has very good odds of succeeding. If it does, SP will probably bump up big time, and they can start planning their Phase 3.
If it doesn’t meet endpoint, I’m sure company will try to spin it somehow, but I’m afraid that will doom them.
cw99, what was your impression of the science based on the study review?
Do you see any catalyst for a re-rating for the next six months? They are stuck in extended phase 2 for another seven months now? At that point they have to go through the same kind of review?
I thought it was interesting that the comparison was to Toprol and not placebo. The fact that they showed some statistical significance to Toprol is good news.
PONE67 – $TICKER – PLEASE
The reason to start every post (even a response or reply) with ticker is so it will be searchable later. As for ABIO, they will present top-line data 1Q2018, so sometime between Jan and March, not quite 7 months. I think the BEST trial was already done with placebo that showed bucindolol prevented recurrences of A fib in patients with the Arg389 genotype. Why not compare to Toprol? That’s what good trials do. I encourage you to search the threads. Start here:
After further review of $ABIO, I am going to pass on it. It was quickly obvious to me that they are hopelessly undercapitalized for where they are now. They are living off cash scraps thrown to them every six months, and how will they fund a phase 3 study?
To me the fact that management only owns less than 4% of the company speaks volumes to me. They want to fund continued science using “other peoples’ money” not their money.
I also got the feeling that the management team is academic rather than business-focused. That is also part of the reason the cash situation has become so precarious.
I will look at this again in six months.
Dr KSS, you have been very prolific here, offering analysis for quite a few biotech stocks. Unfortunately, this site has no ticker-based discussion boards. And you quite often write an article on a specific company, only to close down the comments section. Would you have any objection to my going through your 2016-to-2017 picks and opening discussion for those on Stockopedia’s discussion boards, on a per-ticker basis? Stockopedia seems to attract the highest quality investors so discussions usually do not degrade into name calling. I could then cross post the opening discussion inline here.
While your intentions may be pure, your request is just unreasonable.
Our Dr. Relentless already has a full plate, provides us with all his work at a personal cost and oh by the way has his own medical practice.
We have made it a practice on this board to guard his time. So while it is entirely up to him, we try to protect his time.
Hi pone67, please beware of the fact that there are copyright considerations governing cross-postings or cross-quoting either and both ways.
pone67 – What happens in this forum stays in this forum. We have had cases before where individuals cut and pasted into other forums and that was stopped. If bioinvestors want to get ahead and get access to the best new science value proposition in town they should sign up to SG. Remember Docs comments are his intellectual property. I do ticker searches all the time. It is quite easy.
No, I am afraid that absolutely would neither work nor be satisfactory. Travis and I have a proprietary interest in this forum, and it is copyrighted, and those copyrights will be vigorously defended. Stock Gumshoe, in fact, attracts the highest quality investors there are, our readers. We do not systematically close down comment sections and are open to considering ticker-based threads. Many of your objections to our format are about to be roundly and soundly remedied in our new version. We’ve learned to deal with name callers, and the forum has its own method of dealing with them, one that works for this forum. Once the new forum is unveiled, I’lll be happy to entertain suggestions for how it might be improved. I appreciate your interest, but I view the efforts of my friend Cleveland, other top contributors, and my night and day efforts here as being like Michelin stars are to the restaurant industry. And we work insanely hard for readers here.
Doc, you are truly a good friend and a master of understatement,
For what its worth I like having all stocks discussed in one boiling cauldron.
This lends itself to many side discussions of medical interest as well as cross comparisons of stocks and investing philosophy.
Not to mention the pain of signing up for a high number of individual threads.
Just one person’s input.
Any discussion forum where we can enter a ticker symbol on which you have commented, and can move forward the discussion in the context of that ticker, would be a solution.
I think it is very important – and very high value – that any time a person wants to catch up on the entire conversation that has centered around one ticker, that the person have someplace to go to read all of that conversation. Today, everything is scattered around different threads. There is no way to find much of it. Questions get duplicated. Important comments get lost.
What is the timeline for releasing the new system?
Hey Doc. We never really got to hear much about the MIcrocap Conference after you had those technical difficulties. Anything earth shattering happen that we missed?
People commenting on this thread: you could have simply stated your objections without downvoting me. I was making a CONSTRUCTIVE comment, aimed at making the discussions here easier to follow. I accept the objections that were made, and at no point did I argue any of this.
Now you have completely trashed my user rating when all I wanted to do was make this a better place.
Probably for commenting on how to make the threads easier to follow, and in the next post discussing a stock without giving the ticker symbol. But it wasn’t me, here are two thumbs up. We’ll figure it out.
@ajgormican the first sentence of the post discussing a stock was “I am wondering if anyone has insights on the decline of ARCA (ABIO)”. Is your criticism that I did not express the stock symbol with a dollar sign? ($ABIO) I am happy to follow any conventions.
no ticker -pone67 – many follow discussion via e-mail so every post even reply’s need $ticker. thanks
Pone…can’t find your original post, but ambivalence about $ABIO is wise, balanced. In my heart of hearts, I think the trial will succeed, but things are scrappy at this firm, and none of us knows why. Cleveland’s point is uber-trenchant: why aren’t the original backers stepping up here?
The best help I can bring to this is to corral them, get ’em on the phone and plumb their depths. See what shakes out. Or down. I am happy to do that, but it would be at least 2 weeks before I can. Very very busy right now with other Gummune biz.
If something about a situation bothers you, heed that. Those voices are there to be listened to. Listen while they whisper lest they have to start shouting.
pone67 – I wonder if you really understand what this site is all about ? However imperfect it is, it is the productive result of literally years of effort by intelligent and well-meaning contributors. I think the key word is “sensitivity” (on all sides).
Folks are really sensitive right now having been thru some recent forum pain.
Your suggestion was perfectly reasonable EXCEPT if it makes work for our Doc.
If he agrees AND someone like Travis can do the admin. Then it becomes possible.
Pone Sorry but we have had a lot of problems the last several days with posters and everyone is on edge. I tried to give you thumbs up to put you back to zero. Perhaps others can lend a helping hand here. Doc’s response was fine.
I do not completely understand what you would like to do. If you want to take this offline so I can understand better what you are trying to accomplish and how that would benefit us ask the contact below to contact me and we can review. Understand there is a lot of things up in the air.
@Cleveland, I sent my contact info to the payments email.
Thank you Gummies for Putting Pone67 whole again !!!! Awsome !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He is new here…..
Y. A. Tittle, legendary QB for NY Giants and others. Age 90.
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