All things Uranium: Company research and thesis refinementWho is this for: Investors looking to make explosive profits with time horizons of multiple years
What is this for: Exchange of ideas for how to position a portfolio for the next bullish cycle in uranium
Why? After 30 hours of preliminary research, I have a strong feeling that we are on the cusp of the next Uranium bull market and would like to share some of the research and sources I have found as well as gather information from the collective knowledge of stock gumshoe members about how others are positioning their portfolios and companies which look especially appealing.
Here is what got this whole journey started: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfvAIor53Ig
I HIGHLY recommend anybody considering uranium to watch the above 22 min video by Michael Alkin. Michael has spent nearly the last 20 years in the hedge fund industry. He has worked for a few multi-billion dollar hedge funds. During his career, he has been an analyst, portfolio manager and partner. He has been a dedicated short-seller, managed both a long and short portfolio and at times have been responsible for several hundred million dollars of capital.
Here is another good video about the strategy I am trying to employ with the uranium sector: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SW96tD9Kdg&feature=youtu.be
This is the one proven way to make money in the natural resource sectors, these industry’s are cyclecar. As Warren Buffet says, your job is to pick the what. What will go up. Getting the timing exactly is extremely hard. I don’t know if the bull market has just started: spot prices are up over 20% as we speak or if it will take another couple years. All I know is that the bull market has not happened in the last 7 years and the fundamentals of the story are only improving
I recommend following John Quakes on twitter @Quakes99 for more uranium information as well. He shares a lot of good articles and resources and is very generous with his insight. I have had multiple conversations with him.
and last but certainly note least here is a uranium report: https://t.co/bjeLXHpg7M by Swiss resource capitol. GREAT COMPANY SUMMARIES AND EASY WAY TO START THE DD process.
my current portfolio: $UEC, $UUUU, $FCU, $SHY. Uranium currently makes of 8.2% of my overall portfolio. I am looking to increase this weight to 13.4% as I gain more confidence in the company landscape. There are only about 40 companies in this space and an estimated 10 quality names, excited to hear others insights and I have some more resources to share if this microblog becomes active.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
Would love to know your take on anfield resources.High risk/reward play?
Here are my notes on Anfield – ANDLF owns Shootaring Canyon Mill (Utah) one of three in US, 4.1 M&1 velvet wood mine in utah (4.5 mil ib). 41% IRR both from Uranium One. Want to get up to 1,500,oo pounds of uranium per year production 1 mil through conventional mine restart and refurbishment. $75,000,000 gross at $50 uranium. Lowest M&1 12 mil ibs in resources. Considers themselves a producer.
Concerns – hard to raise money at a $6 mil MC. Can they execute without capitol?.
Insiders owns 12%, US energy Corp owns 45% (no mining related assests will probably look to liquidate MC 7 mil) (now 19% with recent dilution)
Paid 6 million for 24 ISR projects in Wyoming. Secured tradional past producing mines YR, MAG, Alamosa. Currently 8,299,000 pounds not including Red Rim, South Sweetwater, Clarkson Hill, Frank M and Findlay Tank
Clarkson Hill:
Inferred Mineral Resource of 957,000 tons with an average grade of 0.058 % eU3O8, estimated to contain 1,113,000 pounds of eU3O8.
Red Rim:
an Indicated Resource of 336,655 tons of mineralized material with an average grade of 0.170% eU3O8 (equivalent to an Indicated Resource of 1,142,449 pounds of eU3O8); and
an Inferred Resource of 472,988 tons of mineralized material with an average grade of 0.163% eU3O8 (equivalent to an Inferred Resource of 1,539,447 pounds of eU3O8).
currenlty waiting on nine mile
24 ISR-amenable assets with a historical resource of ~37 million pounds in September 2016. (??) Not in company presentation.
One of the overlooked assets in its asset base is a royalty portfolio that it acquired during the September 2016 transaction with Uranium one.
-2% to 4% sliding scale production royalty on Azarga Uranium’s (TSE:AZZ) Dewey Burdock project in Custer and Fall River Counties, South Dakota
-2% NSR on Western Uranium’s (CNSX:WUC) San Rafael project in Emery County, Utah
-2% to 4% sliding scale gross value royalty on Energy Fuels’ (TSE:EFR) Whirlwind project in Grand County, Utah.
-1% royalty on Energy Fuels’ (TSE:EFR) Energy Queen project in San Juan County, Utah.
The royalties are all on established projects, and will offer enormous torque. The Dewey Burdock project is the most advanced and the royalty is conservatively worth CA$4.1 million at current uranium prices. Compare this to Anfield’s current market cap of C$8.2 million
Concern – alot going on at alot of different places. Continued Dilution and selling from major shareholder. Expensive to become small producer. Might be cheap for a good reason. Non-ISR that aren’t in the Athabasca basin don’t make a whole lot of sense unless uranium prices is 2x atleast of where it is now. Small mine thesis of growing organically extremely hard to exicute.
Small mines have same amount of probelms that big mines do but not the same upside.
Reason to invest – If shared UEC’s valuation factor, (4 mil pd peak production, $50 uranium $200,000,000) Anflield would be worth $75,000,000 in todays climate. In a bull market, they would have a premium. Anfield has managed to bypass the long lead times associated with advancing to production through both the acquisition of an existing mill in Utah and an RPA signed with Uranium One to use its existing processing plan. (this is not really reflected in the price in my opinion.)
So interesting company. Don’t know if I am sold on a small producer. A lot needs to go right for them and the potential is inheriantly somewhat lower than other plays in th space. None of the big mining investors I follow seem to be invested here. Will they do well in an explosive bull market, sure. I think we will have a progression to $60 by 2019 and hit another leg up from there. they certainly are cheap though so the upside could be sharp if they do. Lots of operational and finiancial risk in my opinion. They need to get that MC up in a hurry. Diluating by 50% doesn’t make many friends
This will be interesting thread Levbrans, great timing. Speaking of timing, congrats to HN on his UEC purchase earlier this week!
I’ve been waiting for this thread as all these EVehicles have to get electricity from somewhere…..it just makes sense.
cheers
Glad to have you on bored Lulu. Very interesting space. It really does just make sense. Miners/producer can’t/won’t produce at a loss. The cure for low prices are low prices. The timeline is hard to know precisely but supply and demand will get out of balance in the next cycle. Mines take years to build and permit
Right now the 5 year contracts signed in 2012 are paying around $40 a pound. This number will continue to decrease as 2018 comes around into 2019. Supply side has taken 14% off the market and I would not be surprised if the Kazaks take some more off. US recently cut their selling on the spot market by 50% from 8 million pounds to 4 million.
Uranium is a GROWING industry at 3% year.
As michael Alkin says “the most asymmetrical risk/reward he has seen in his career”.
Was watching some rick rule on YouTube and he was talking about his love for project developers who do JV’s. Take advantage of intellectual property and sell the physical. Trying to get a grasp of what names in the uranium space fit this model.
I know skyharbor is somewhat taking in the mold. Need to see if any others in the space are. Marin Katusa is big on this name. Denison is also a large shareholder.
Dension is another company I have trouble getting a good valuation for. Have a lot of different things going on
$FCU $URE $DML Long In the red and holding
FCU is a great project. I have heard the analyst at eight capitol who is covering them is predicting 60% increase in uranium resources on their next update which should be coming any time now which would obviously be a huge catalyst.
Interested in hearing your thoughts on the particular merits of $URE and $DML that drew you to those names. URE looks like what anfield wants to become. ISR is an outstanding technology. Their production is dirt cheap.