written by reader Economic depression coming in few months?

by Zeflik | May 26, 2018 8:01 am

Lately, I`ve come across two similar publications both preaching complete depression in the world economy leading to the crisis on the stock market like in the 1930`s. One is coming from Harry Dent who predicts the economical crush already in summer this year. The second one has been published by Sean Brodick in his WealthWave letters and in his scenario the depression will be deepest in 2022. Although the backgrounds to draw their conclusions are different, in both cases the doom scenario and the way how to get rich during the depression is the leading element of all future actions/advises which the readers should follow subject of subscribing to their respective letters.
The main differences are not only in the timing but also on the reaction how stock market will react in coming months. Dent predicts deep fall of the stocks by around 70% in 2020 however Brodick`s scenario predicts huge stock market growth pushing Dow to 45 000 in the same time period.
Dent recommends to get rid of gold while Brodick contrary advises to invest in gold stocks. Both gentlemen claims to be unmistakable in their predictions what they support buy their past records.
I am curious what do you Gummies think about the how stocks will evolve in coming two years.

Source URL: https://sgumdev.stockgumshoe.com/2018/05/microblog-economic-depression-coming-in-few-months/



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4 years ago

The one thing that I believe stock history teaches is that you can never predict the timing of the fall but you can accurately predict the amount of the fall. For this I recommend following John Hussman at https://www.hussmanfunds.com/content/comment/. His current position is that the market will not fall until the internal dynamics are horrible. That means only a few stocks making new highs and showing all the growth while the majority of the stocks are going the other way. My concerns at this point is that you have a few stocks such as Google and Facebook making their money off of internet advertising. Several companies have recently proven that they may cut their internet advertising by more than 50% and not impact sales. So, what happens in the next recession when everyone decides to save money by dropping their internet advertising? Then how well does Amazon perform during a recession when sales drop off and they are left with a lot of fixed warehousing costs?

We have a lot of companies whose business model has not been tested during a recession. Who will be able to control and lower their costs to match slower or lower sales?

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