Friday File: Starbucks Pops, Insurance Drops, Buying after Stops

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | November 2, 2018 4:29 pm

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feellicks
feellicks
3 years ago

Hi Travis, did you have a chance to check out $TDOC earnings report yet?

Thanks for your thoughts, and have a great weekend!

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Shaun
3 years ago

Hi Travis regarding strategies I struggle to see what the value is in Fairfax financial, quickly looking at the charts you could have bought in 2014 and essentially have been flat until now. Obviously you could have made money along the way if you were nimble enough(you could also have lost big) but from the outside Prem Watsa seems to make more investing mistakes than Buffet at Berkshire. Do you have a upper target price where you sell and wait for the next downward fluctuation to buy back in? or do you simply believe he will get it right long term and hold what may?

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dusty55
dusty55
3 years ago

AAPL: With 5G about to pop onto the stage and no existing cell phones [I have read] having any 5G capability— the smart thing to do would be to not buy a new cell phone now or for a couple of years. Unless money is easy for the buyer. In 2019, 5G will be an ever growing presence. The cell phones released by Spring of 2019 will have some 5G, Apple’s iPhones in September 2019 will be effectively first generation 5G phones. I think it would be smarter now to not buy replacement phones of any kind until at least mid- 2020 or maybe Fall 2021. By Fall 2021, ~third generation. Perhap watch AAPL now and buy shares if you can because there are going to be a whole lot of iPhones sold in the next couple of years due to 5G which should push up the price of AAPL. My opinion. Subject to change at the flick of any eyelash that presents better information or ideas. Personally, AAPL is effectively out of my reach already.

David Sokol was apparently being groomed to take Berkshire “after Warren.” Sokol was uncomfortable with both Warren and Berkshire and wanted out. The only clean exit was to engineer a questionable-looking event that would force Warren’s hand and Sokol did that. The SEC took a close look and called it a “nothing burger” but Sokol had completed his escape. I am super-summarizing an article written a long time ago by or for David Sokol .

Stop Losses: I cannot repeat in adequate detail but some analyst said to calculate the vertical spread of a stock from its baseline. Double that. Add a dollar or a percent or two. A 5% or 10% Stop-Loss is going to be victimized by the market makers. I had that happen to me. Set your stop-loss at 7% or 7.5%; or use 11% to 14%. Calculate so if the spread is, example, $1.20, your Stop Loss will be $2.40 plus the safety margin. Maybe $2.55. Mental stops are best, as Travis says. [From what I recall of all my reading.]

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frankw17
3 years ago

Travis, are you including the autonomous cars application in hotspots for 5G? The reason I ask is this application is a pipe dream without 5G, IMO.

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Darcy
Darcy
3 years ago

speaking about when to back, any comment NVDA?

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Darcy
Darcy
3 years ago

“buy back NVDA”

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tanglewood
3 years ago
Reply to  Darcy

#NVDA earnings to be released Nov 15. This is such a volatile stock. It could go up or down by 30 or 40 points. Jim Cramer went out on a limb and predicted a quarter miss.
https://www.thestreet.com/video/jim-cramer-nvidia-is-going-to-miss-the-quarter-14743766

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millerfilm
3 years ago

$SBUX Holiday Cup Offer today, however, was a major fail! They were offering a reusable Holiday Cup if you purchased a holiday drink. But, stores across the nation ran out of the reusable holiday cups early this morning. And, they wouldn’t give you a white reusable cup instead. I have been invested in Starbucks for nearly a decade, and stupid stumbles like this are embarrassing.

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gdoggcrunch
3 years ago

Re: AAPL, something I’ve not seen much about was their tight-lipped response on the con call about healthcare opportunities. Listen to the analyst question and Cooks response. They have a whole new market they are setting up to disrupt. All the talking heads are focused on the “lack of innovation”. All you have to do is think about the watch capabilities combined with the app store and any number of options they have with their cash war chest to instantly have a significant impact. I added on the dip, and I may be early but the potential is too big given that its not expensive as Travis says above. I wouldn’t bet the farm, but I’d bet the doghouse!

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eleanor
eleanor
3 years ago

Thank you Travis for another excellent review.

I went to China recently and have been talking to some people there. No doubt Apple products were in much demand a few years ago, but I was told the sentiment has shifted a bit recently. A lot of Chinese are actually buying Huawei instead of Apple or Samsung products. Apple is still a great company, but investors want more growth and cutting edge from Apple. Hopefully 5g will bring Apple more growth.

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marvinzilenga
marvinzilenga
3 years ago

Do you know anything about Doug Casey’s Gold?

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chrizcringle
3 years ago

Nice to see your opening position in Prophecy Development Corp. I’ve been a shareholders for years (originally as a silver-play…and it’s been brutal), but I believe it’s massive potential going forward. They’re just getting started, and hiring the new CEO was imho a nice move. Good luck, Travis

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in9exile
in9exile
3 years ago

Thanks Travis. I love TreasuryDirect and have always felt like it was a little bit of a secret, though I mention to people all the time how it is such a great place to purchase I Bonds on a monthly basis.

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hiltonb
hiltonb
3 years ago

RE: iQiyi
Part of my challenge with iQiyi is not being able to evaluate the product from a consumer perspective. Looking at the website is certainly doesn’t have that Netflix polish but maybe that is my Northern American bias. Just curious if any readers with the requisite language skills can answer the simple question: is their VIP content any good?

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JackInTheBox
3 years ago

Travis, What a phenomenal missive! You often speak about wanting to get into positions but are waiting for a better entry point. what i do in those instances, is sell puts at the price i would buy; if i get assigned- i wanted in at that price anyway. If i don’t get assigned- at least i keep the option contract premium. What say you?

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