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Friday File: Gambling on Sports, Micro-Dosing on Stocks

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, March 27, 2020

I knew to buy like crazy last Friday morning, because people say that I am the SMARTEST INVESTOR IN THE WORLD. Woohoo!

Oops, sorry, I forgot that I wasn’t selling myself with hype-filled puffery. That’s obviously not true, I did some buying last week and opened a few new positions that have done well so far, but I’ve really been nibbling all the way down this month, and I don’t know whether or not we’ve hit “bottom.”

What I meant to say was, “gosh, that was a crazy week… I wonder what will happen next?”

The pundits have a wide range of opinions from which we can sample, often delivered through one of their “urgent video briefings” from a home office… from Whitney Tilson arguing that this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime….

“I don’t know for sure, but my best guess is that the market turns sustainably upward once the number of new cases each day peaks and then starts to decline.

“That’s what happened in China.

“In fact, considering the 10% bounce we saw earlier this week when the new stimulus plan was announced, the bottom could already be behind us.

“And that’s why I think you need to start buying today.

“I don’t claim to have the ability to identify the exact moment when stocks will bottom. I think we’re likely within 5-10% of a bottom, so I’ve invested a substantial portion of my long-term savings. But I could be wrong. The market could easily fall another 20% before hitting a final bottom, so I’m not recommending that anyone put 100% of their investable assets in the market right now. Definitely keep some dry powder in case the market goes even lower.

“But the big money is made by courageous investors willing to wade into totally uncertain situations – like right now.”

(Tilson’s latest update told us he’s releasing some “top ten” lists of stocks to buy, including one of safer blue chip names and one of more aggressive names in beaten-down industries — he didn’t drop any hints, but he did mention a name from each category, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) and TripAdvisor (TRIP).)

… to Martin Weiss and other bears urging us to protect our remaining holdings and sell most of our stocks in the “bounce” rally this week that will precede the next 20-40% collapse, with teaser ads ...

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