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“Obama’s 100-Day Profit Plan” Motley Fool

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, January 29, 2009

“Priority One: Fix the Economy

“Now, with an estimated $850 billion projected to flood the market, here are the sectors you need to watch and 3 companies you need to know about right away. Why? Because they could make you very, very rich in 2009…”

That’s how the latest (loooong) ad for the Motley Fool Stock Advisor newsletter begins — Stock Advisor, for those who don’t know it, is the flagship newsletter of the Fool, with each issue featuring competing picks from brothers (and Fool founders) Tom and David Gardner.

And they’re not about to miss out on the opportunity (both for making money, and for selling newsletter subscriptions) that the expected stimulus windfall might provide.

“For serious investors, it could mean the opportunity of a lifetime.

“Because if you’re looking to build real wealth in 2009 and beyond, you won’t want to ignore where all this money is going.”

Now, I’m personally more of a “wiseacre investor” than a “serious investor,” but who am I to shrug at the “opportunity of a lifetime?”

The Fools go on to say that big government investments are what really spur investment booms — they give a couple examples:

“A look back in history shows that most major U.S. industry booms started when Washington began signing checks for research and development initiatives… offering generous tax subsidies… and establishing production mandates…

“Back in the 1940s it was the defense industry…

“In the 1950s and 1960s the electronics, auto, and aviation industries soared…

“In the 70s it was all about oil…

“And the 80s is when the technology and computer boom began…”

Interestingly enough, with this particular ad they’re apparently not touting “alternative energy,” which has been the focus of other Obama-oriented investment teasers from the Motley Fool and others. They’re talking about some other initiatives that are related to government stimulus and investment programs.

Here are the three teasers for individual stocks, along with some answers …

“Investment #1 in Obama’s 100-Day Profit Plan

“There’s a good chance you’ve never even heard of this company before, though it’s listed on the Fortune 500 and its history dates back over 100 years.

“For decades, it’s commanded a top spot in the transportation sector where it plays a leading role in the construction industry.

“In fact, this company is a top player in the market for transporting construction equipment and materials….

“They have a stellar history of being great stewards with shareholders’ money…

“Like generating a strong 22% return on equity and paying out a quarterly dividend every year since 1941.

“… recently this company and its smart management were able to grow its profit over 15% year over year.

“… with the market’s recent sell-off, this company is selling at a bargain-basement price.”

So, the Fools think that this is a “stock that could easily double in 2009.” What is it?

This one is a bit of a guess, but I’ll throw out a possibility: PACCAR (PCAR).

This is a truck-making firm, they build Peterbilt, Kenworth and a few other brands, and have a big chunk of the new truck business in the United States. The trucks they build could certainly transport materials and construction equipment.

They have the “strong 22% return on equity,” and the company is over 100 years old (founded in 1905) and has paid a dividend since 1941, so it’s a reasonable guess — but I don’t know of a recent quarter when they’ve reported 15% earnings growth to match that clue. Earnings and profits can be funny numbers, so it’s possible that this is technically true for some recent quarter that I haven’t investigated (and they’ve certainly had many quarters of growth at much higher levels, just not in the last nine months or so). PCAR has been a very long term grower, though annual earnings peaked in 2006 with the big wave of replacement trucks to meet new diesel emissions rules, and have been a bit lower since.

And I do know that this stock was in the Fool’s Stock Advisor portfolio at least as of November, and they rarely sell stocks so it probably is still there. It’s not expensive on current earnings, but whether or not they will benefit from stimulus spending that could possibly increase demand for heavy trucks is a bigger and broader question that I certainly can’t answer.

Let’s look at another one …

“Investment #2 in Obama’s 100-Day Profit Plan

“This company plays a unique role in the construction industry…

“They supply hundreds of thousands of parts and tools almost every construction company uses each day.

“And with a market cap of just over $2 billion, this small player is quickly becoming the “go-to” just-in-time partner for the many construction outfits that make up the $140 billion materials market.

“Customers already love this company’s same-day shipping and competitive prices….

“This company also has a history of doing right by its shareholders, including generous stock buybacks and consistently paying a quarterly dividend (in fact, it’s getting ready to send out more than $12 million to its shareholders in just a few weeks).

“Another thing I like about this company is the fact that several key executives own significant stakes in this business…. Including one insider alone, who owns more than 18% of the shares outstanding.

“If you’re interested, I suggest you act quickly on this stock, because it’s already on the move… in fact, it’s up about 20% in just the past few weeks.”

OK, so this one’s a bit of an estimate, too, but I’ll wager that this is MSC Industrial Direct (MSM).

This is a distributor of all kinds of industrial tools and supplies, and they do have a “same day shipping” guarantee and focus on customer service. They’re also valued at just over $2 billion and have had some periods of “several weeks” when they were up 20% in the last couple months (it’s hard to guess exactly when the ad was written). They do consistently pay a quarterly dividend, and if you include the Class B shares then the dividend for this next quarter should be a bit over $12 million (maybe closer to 13).

The insider ownership issue is a bit more odd — if you look at the basic insider statistics on any financial portal it will say that the only big owner is Lone Pine Capital, which owns about 11% of the company. But dig a bit deeper, and we see that this is really a family-controlled business. They also have Class B shares, which are convertible to Class A shares at the owners preference and which all appear to be owned by Chairman of the Board Mitchell Jacobson and his family. There are about 18 million Class B shares, each of which carries 10 votes versus a single vote for each A share. There are about 44 million of the regular Class A shares. If the family sells any Class B shares, they automatically become Class A shares, so the insiders are certainly in control here.

This took me too long to figure out as it was, so I’ll just add that I know this company is a recent holding of the Stock Advisor newsletter portfolio (thanks to their disclosures in their free articles), and it is a pretty good match for the clues. Can’t be 100% sure, but it is an interesting company — I’d expect them to be pretty cyclical given the business they’re in, largely industrial supply, but know very little about their business prospects otherwise. It’s not rock-bottom cheap, and they were just upgraded by Jefferies today, so there must be something there to like … let us all know if you’ve got info to share about MSM.

But I have to move on to the next one …

“Investment #3 in Obama’s 100-Day Profit Plan

“Another key initiative in President Obama’s economic stimulus plan is computerizing medical records for all Americans.

“After all the technological advancements we’ve made over the past few decades, it’s almost unbelievable that two-thirds of our hospitals and 90% of all U.S. doctors still rely on paper patient records.

Now with the U.S. population topping 300 million, you can easily see how this type of technology mandate will not only produce better and more efficient health care, but also a huge windfall for key health technology companies.

“In our extensive research over the past few weeks, we uncovered one tiny software company that’s already built a strong position in large medical and dental practices….

“Sales have grown on average 28% per year over the past 5 years…

“Its return on equity is a stellar 35% and…

“The stock has rocketed more than 700% over the past few years…

“Right now its balance sheet is rock solid with more than $67 million in cash on hand and absolutely no debt.

“And while most businesses were struggling to survive in 2008, for its quarter ending October 31, 2008, this company posted record revenue… up more than 30% over the same quarter for the prior year.

“A revenue jump that helped boost its stock price 20% even as the S&P 500 fell 38% over the same time period.

“… almost 35% of its outstanding shares are owned by insiders.”

Interested? I can be a bit more certain about this one — this is …

Quality Systems Inc. (QSII)

Quality Systems has been one of Tom Gardners claims to fame for many years, since he enjoyed that nearly 700% rise from some of his early recommendations of the stock. It is indeed a software company (which almost always means high margins) that helps medical and dental offices “electrify” patient records. The clues all match, it did have 30% sales growth last quarter (about 8% earnings growth, just FYI); it does have about 35% insider ownership; they do have $67 million in cash and no debt.

This is a sector that’s getting quite a bit of attention lately — electronic medical records are a significant push of the Obama administration, and may be part of the healthcare bit of the current stimulus plan, but this big “push” has been promised for at least a decade. Perhaps we’ll finally get there now as the dire need for more efficient healthcare spending comes to the forefront of government priorities.

QSII is certainly not the only company at the front of the line for this business — the one that’s gotten most of the attention lately is Athenahealth (ATHN), which is the current “growth darling” of the market to capitalize on this trend. QSII is more of a software provider to individual offices, ATHN more of a service provider, with a web-based system for electronic records. Both are priced at substantial premiums to the market, in accord with their above average growth rates.

So — do you want to buy any of these? Should the track record of the newsletter color your choice?

The ad says that “right now Motley Fool Stock Advisor is outperforming the market by 29%…”

That’s the Fool’s own cumulative number — for the last year, according to Hulbert, Stock Advisor performed almost exactly the same as the broader market (he uses the Wilshire 5000). Over longer periods (3-5 years) it has beaten the market by a percentage point or so per year. Hulbert’s math also tells us that their portfolio took on slightly less risk than the broader market, for whatever that’s worth.

Some interesting picks from the Fool in the construction/infrastructure and medical information sectors, and I know that they’ve been shooting out ads that cited their interest in both PACCAR and Quality Systems for quite some time (I think MSC Industrial is a more recent addition to their quiver).

Anything right for your portfolio? Well, as always, that’s your call — go forth, researchify, and let us know what you think!

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John M
13 years ago

Trying to pick with all the promises coming from Washington is becoming the national pastime. Well, I bought some CAT…and at just the wrong time! $42.12 and then they laid of 20k employees and now they are at $32.xx. I do think it will come back and with a vengeance…you gotta move dirt to redo infrastructure!

Don S
Don S
13 years ago

I’ve been holding CAT for awhile as it has continued to decline. I think it has to come back, but I see Cramer prefers DE. Neither one has been doing well. Both could benefit if the push for infrastructure investment materializes.

13 years ago

Just a side note for those interested in PACCAR, I used to work for this company back in 1974, I had just graduated from Issaquah High School, they made railroad box cars. They also made tanks, these where tested up in the hills east of Renton, Washinton. These tanks where “test driven” all over this site which included a 60-degree concrete test slab. Many a motorcyle rider found themselves being chased by a tank! Oh well, just a passing memory.

Daryl Johnson
Daryl Johnson
13 years ago

I like CAT and DE for the long run. Selling naked puts on both at the dips, shouid I get assigned, I’ll sell covered calls as they move sideways. If they spike and the stock is called away from me, I’ll repeat the from the start with naked puts again. Both make a quality product with a stellar reputation. Can’t fathom a buyout or merger for either in the future.

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Garry Cleverdon
Garry Cleverdon
13 years ago

Being in the construction industry I can assure readers that most companies have SUBSTANTIAL idle plant and equipment that will fill any void of an expansion in construction spending. I would not touch either of the Fools construction choices with a barge pole tied to the Queen Mary!! Those Brits amongst you will understand the analogy.

Henry Chakoian
13 years ago

Off the topic. I saw a header for Stem cell stocks under $5.00 on one of your pages. This area is touted as having great potential under Obama. Thoughts on potential and specific recos? Thanks, Herach.

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Add a Topic
13 years ago

What are everyone’s thoughts on GATX? They’re in the Fortune 500 and have been in business over 100 years also… I haven’t done any research beyond that yet…

13 years ago

The Shoe’s speculation on PACCAR as the Fool’s pick makes sense. The Fool’s pick itself to me is wishful thinking.

With the contraction in everything up and down the supply chain trucking is feeling it in a big way and there are plenty of idled rigs, many of them of recent vintage, that will put the brakes on new truck sales for years – both the vocational truck market which will benefit from infrastructe spending but also OTR tractors – a huge market for Kenworth and Peterbilt.

Lots of hardware out there parked on lots so the immediate needs in the next six to twelve months can be met but simply bringing those units back online or running the existing fleet more hours per day.

The Shoe likely has the right pick – I think it’s the Fool that’s simply picking either wrong or too early. Take a look at Oshkosh Trucks for a major manufacturer in deep contraction. Of course from current and near future levels the potential is there for some strong upside quarters.

I’m new here – what a great service both from a “fun” standpoint but also as a screening tool for what the newsletters are touting. I enjoy seeing the guru’s feet being held to the fire when it comes to their own stats. Lots of shading of the truth that they largely get away with.


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13 years ago

a little off the subject of construction co’s – when talking about health care software don’t forget the 400 lb gorilla GE ! A few years ago they bought a highly successful health software company headquartered in Burlington VT (don’t remember the name at the moment.

13 years ago

100 days? it’s impossible!
here is a articles about why it’s impossible: http://top5stocks.blogspot.com/2009/02/5-top-stocks-to-pick-up-today.html

Farley 5
Farley 5
13 years ago

Caviet Emptor on GE. It is in a death spiral and will cut the dividend very soon. All of their sales are down including the Greenies favorite, wind turbines.

13 years ago