by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | July 21, 2017 6:48 pm
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SWKS seems like a good play…nice metrics for a tech stock
Thanks Travis for the deep dive into SWKS. I think the stock will comtinue it’s climb for at least through the end of the year. My only exposure to tech is NVDA and it’s been doing exceptionally well. I think the trend will continue so I think I may start a small position in SWKS.
My comment refers to paragraphs 3 thru 5. I would just like to mention the way I see the financial market. The Chinneess are new to the world market after centuries of being isolated by their own decision. And they have read history books about how the gold standard worked and how we got away from it. The world today is a totally a different beast. The $ is the reserve currency. And yes we keep raising the debt ceiling. And this simply means borrowing money to keep the cycle turning. Now let’s think about this situation. Yes we are some 20 trillion in debt. Now Chaina has for years been stockpiling gold. With the thaught of becoming the reserve currency. What a joke. We have witnessed them being non player and being a nation of Cummunist. One reason the U.S. $ is the reserve currency is simple. Let’s keep in mind the U.S. has the most weapons in the free world we have military bases located in many areas of the world, and aid in monetary when ever a disaster hits a nation we help generously in aid. Well these things are done with U.S. Money, fiat currency. To keep this short what will giving China the reserve currency do and happen? If the debt cieiling keeps raising and keeps things rolling what will happen in this modern world of countries? Same thing as now development of more democracy countries being developed and the ball rolling. And those concerned about getting the debt under control keep on keeping on. Oh yeah Juno mission to Jupiter ends soon. http://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/25/science/nasa-juno-spacecraft-jupiter-storms.html
By Kimberly Amadeo updated July 18, 2017, Following link U.S. Federal Budget Breakdown link- http://www.thebalance.com/u-s-federal-budget-breakdown-3305789
Here’s Morningstar’s take on Qualcomm from 7/19 , I’m hanging in there….
“Qualcomm reported solid fiscal third-quarter results despite a host of ongoing legal challenges related to its licensing business, QTL, and its pending acquisition of NXP Semiconductors. Management reiterated their views that the firm will be able to defend its QTL business model, and the NXP deal will close by the end of calendar 2017. We anticipate the dispute with Apple will be drawn out over multiple quarters, with a persisting shortfall in royalty revenue from the smartphone leader, though we continue to expect Qualcomm to successfully defend the viability of QTL. Meanwhile, the firm has hit a roadblock in attaining regulatory approval for the NXP acquisition, as EU antitrust regulators launched an in-depth probe into whether the combination would lead to reduced innovation and higher prices. We continue to view the deal as complementary and expect it to go through. Our $68 fair value estimate remains intact and we continue to see an appropriate margin of safety in narrow-moat Qualcomm.
Third-quarter revenue fell 11% year-over-year to $5.37 billion, mostly due to a lack of royalty payments by Apple’s contract manufacturers and an additional previously disclosed licensee. We estimate this shortfall amounted to roughly $1 billion. In the past, disgruntled licensees that withheld royalties ultimately made catch-up payments once disputes were resolved, and we foresee the issue with Apple following a similar trajectory. Outside of QTL, the firm’s chip business, QCT, performed well during the quarter, with sales up 5% year over year to $4.05 billion due to strength in China. QCT also exhibited its fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year EBT margin improvements. QTL EBT margins, however, fell to 72.9% from 87.1% the prior quarter, due to a lower revenue base and elevated legal expenses.”
Many other tech giants have joined the attack against Qualcomm. Samsung (NASDAQOTH: SSNLF) alleges that Qualcomm prevented it from selling its Exynos chips to other OEMs by holding a patent deal from 1993 over its head. If Samsung sold those chips to other OEMs, either Samsung or the OEM would need to pay Qualcomm extra licensing fees.
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) claims that Qualcomm refuses to license essential patents to its direct competitors, and that it uses exclusive deals to maintain its control over the mobile chip market.
Wins and losses part of life it seems.
When I looked at the $$ the officers pay themselves at SWKS, I was quite astounded. Go to Morningstar/insiders. The way I read it is that 69.57% goes to the key executives. They are all getting over a million….the top two 7 and 6.7 million. Some other interesting facts are 1. stock return –1.42% 2. revenue-94% 3. ROE 5.88% and
Net Income 24.66%. With these facts in mind, am I wrong to think that there sure isn’t a lot of $$$ left for the stockholders? WWW
Several folks have emailed me questions about Qualcomm as well, so I’ll try to be a little clearer in explaining my thinking: What brought QCOM sale to my attention was the fact that it hit a stop loss trigger point for me in the Tradestops system, which doesn’t mean I automatically sell but does mean I look at it seriously.
I do still think Qualcomm will experience a big accretive earnings bump from the NXP acquisition, assuming that acquisition goes through at the current price or near that price, but my concerns that lead me to sell are mostly based on the core earnings engine for Qualcomm: Royalties. Royalties on their patented wireless technologies are what generate most of the earnings (and what makes their margins so high), and it’s royalties that are under attack right now. I wasn’t so concerned when it was just Apple, because it seemed to be just a bargaining chip, but now more of Qualcomm’s large customers have joined the fight either in court or in press releases and there’s a meaningful risk to their royalty levels.
That doesn’t mean the company is going to collapse, but it means that if, say, the royalty rates end up being cut by 50%, QCOM will earn a lot less money and the stock will fall. If the royalty rates end up being cut by 20%, that’s far less serious. I don’t know where it will fall, but I’ve seen plenty of analysts who are concerned about this baseline business for Qualcomm and, given the fact that it also hit a stop loss trigger and I don’t see a quick resolution to the matter before NXP is integrated, I think the downside risk is greater than the upside potential over the next six months.
I’ll keep watching the story, and if the news is not terrible they will still be able to support the stock price with that strong 4% dividend yield, so this may be a great value buying point — stocks don’t get cheap when everyone’s optimistic about them, but QCOM’s dependence on royalty income is so massive that I worry we’ve gotten to a much riskier point for them and I don’t want to try to handicap the court fight. I’ll watch from the sidelines.
Thanks for the update. Just another roll of the dice for me, see which way the proverbial cookie crumbles on this one!
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